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Theories are
explanations of a natural or social behaviour, event, or phenomenon. More
formally, a scientific theory is a system of constructs (concepts) and
propositions (relationships between those constructs) that collectively
presents a logical, systematic, and coherent explanation of a phenomenon of
interest within some assumptions and boundary conditions.
Theories should
explain why things happen, rather than just describe or predict. Note that it
is possible to predict events or behaviours using a set of predictors, without
necessarily explaining why such events are taking place. For instance, market
analysts predict fluctuations in the stock market based on market
announcements, earnings reports of major companies, and new data from the
Federal Reserve and other agencies, based on previously observed correlations .
Prediction requires only correlations. In contrast, explanations require
causations , or understanding of cause-effect relationships. Establishing
causation requires three conditions: (1) correlations between two constructs,
(2) temporal precedence (the cause must precede the effect in time), and (3)
rejection of alternative hypotheses (through testing). Scientific theories are
different from theological, philosophical, or other explanations in that
scientific theories can be empirically tested using scientific methods.
Explanations
can be idiographic or homothetic. Idiographic explanations are those that
explain a single situation or event in idiosyncratic detail. For example, you
did poorly on an exam because: (1) you forgot that you had an exam on that day,
(2) you arrived late to the exam due to a traffic jam, (3) you panicked midway
through the exam, (4) you had to work late the previous evening and could not
study for the exam, or even (5) your dog ate your text book. The explanations
may be detailed,
accurate, and valid, but they may not apply to other similar
situations, even involving the same person, and are hence not genralizable. In
contrast, nomothetic explanations seek to explain a class of situations or
events rather than a specific situation or event. For example, students who do
poorly in exams do so because they did not spend adequate time preparing for
exams or that they suffer from nervousness, attention-deficit, or some other
medical disorder. Because nomothetic explanations are designed to be
generalizable across situations, events, or people, they tend to be less
precise, less complete, and less detailed. However, they explain economically,
using only a few explanatory variables. Because theories are also intended to
serve as generalized explanations for patterns of events, behaviors, or phenomena,
theoretical explanations are generally nomothetic in nature.
While
understanding theories, it is also important to understand what theory is not.
Theory is not data, facts, typologies, taxonomies, or empirical findings. A
collection of facts is not a theory, just as a pile of stones is not a house.
Likewise, a collection of constructs (e.g., a typology of constructs) is not a
theory, because theories must go well beyond constructs to include
propositions, explanations, and boundary conditions. Data, facts, and findings
operate at the empirical or observational level, while theories operate at a
conceptual level and are based on logic rather than observations.
There are many
benefits to using theories in research. First, theories provide the underlying
logic of the occurrence of natural or social phenomenon by explaining what are
the key drivers and key outcomes of the target phenomenon and why, and what
underlying processes are responsible driving that phenomenon. Second, they aid
in sense-making by helping us synthesize prior empirical findings within a
theoretical framework and reconcile contradictory findings by discovering
contingent factors influencing the relationship between two constructs in
different studies. Third, theories provide guidance for future research by
helping identify constructs and relationships that are worthy of further
research. Fourth, theories can contribute to cumulative knowledge building by
bridging gaps between other theories and by causing existing theories to be
reevaluated in a new light.
However,
theories can also have their own share of limitations. As simplified
explanations of reality, theories may not always provide adequate explanations
of the phenomenon of interest based on a limited set of constructs and relationships.
Theories are designed to be simple and parsimonious explanations, while reality
may be significantly more complex. Furthermore, theories may impose blinders or
limit researchers’ “range of vision,” causing them to miss out on important concepts
that are not defined by the theory.
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